Grouping Estimate from Comprehensive Round Input

By entering a multi-range round score breakdown, the archer's form may be calculated with greater precision. The word "may" is used advisedly as your score breakdown may be influenced by unknown conditions or even a statistical confluence of scores that effectively prevents a rigorous analysis.

Because of the statistically relatively small number of shots likely to be involved, the analysis is not as robust as we would desire, however it can still be useful, especially if its guided by a good feel for the process. That "feel" extends to gaining an understanding of the magnitude of the variability or randomness in archery.

This analysis requires significant calculations, so there may be an observable delay when solving - which happens when the tab in entered, the Solve button clicked or data in the table changed.

Range

Enter the range for each column of score data. A zero or negative value indicates the column is to be ignored and will show in a grey tone, although field may still be edited. It is suggested that to temperately disable a column, simply place a negative sign in front of the range.

A red range column indicates a likely score data error in that column.

Face

Enter the diameter of the face at each at each range.

Arrows

Enter the number of arrows shot at each range. Maximum is 1000, but 36 would be more typical. More the better!

Score

Enter the score at each range. The maximum is ten times the number of arrows at the range. A total is provided at the end of the score row.

X's

Enter the number of X's achieved at each range. These are weighted more highly than the main score when finding a solution. The maximum is the number of arrows at the range. A total is provided at the end of the X's row.

Fit Error

This row shows the difference between the actual score and the predicted score for each range. The predicted scores are calculated from the Archer's Form when the solve button is clicked or a table entry is changed.

To be technical, FlyingSticks solves for archer's form by minimizing the root mean square of these fit score errors. Ideally the fit error should be zero.

95% Cert

This calculated field shows the approximate tolerance of the fitted score to 95% certainty for the number of shots for the range's score. Alternatively, it gives an indication of the possible statistical score "error" from a "true" score derived from many more shots. One can legitimately argue that a fit can be improved by nudging the score data up or down by a proportion of this figure.

recalculate

Recalculate the numerical analysis. A successful analysis of a full set of data will generate a new vertical and horizontal group angular standard deviation.

The above mentioned Fit Errors are intermediate results in this process and may be used to judge the quality of the solution. The analysis assumes the arrow's drag coefficient has already been determined from the reverse ballistics data or manually loaded.

Repeated clicks of the Solve button will be seen to produce slightly different fits. This is due to numerical methods on input data that is almost certainly statistically "imperfect" because of the small sample size.

Load from Round Button

After accepting the warning, this button's action will clear all the comprehensive data, then load the round already selected in the Round tab. It will then estimate the scores for each range based on the current Archer's Form. This provides a starting point for entering your actual scores when available. Any of the input fields may be changed.

Apply Button

Click this button to apply the solved solution to the archer's form fields. This will also update the Current Round simulation score estimate.

Statistics

There is more coverage of statistics in the Sight>Ballistics panel's help.